in the NFL and an attempt to predict Derek Carr’s 2019 statistical output. Carr made progress in a few areas but finished 2018 with mostly average..." />Skip to main contentclockmenumore-arrownoyesSilver And Black Pride homepageHorizontal - WhiteSilver And Black Pridean Oakland Raiders communityFollow Silver And Black Pride online:Follow Silver And Black Pride on TwitterFollow Silver And Black Pride on FacebookLog in or sign upLog InSign UpSite searchSearchSearchSilver And Black Pride main menuFanpostsFanshotsRaidersOddsAboutMastheadCommunity GuidelinesStubHubMoreAll 321 blogs on Horizontal - WhiteFanposts Fanshots Raiders StoriesScheduleRosterStatsYahoo Raiders NewsYahoo Raiders Team PageYahoo Raiders ReportYahoo Raiders Depth ChartYahoo Raiders TransactionsYahoo Raiders PhotosOdds About Masthead Community Guidelines StubHub ✕Using statistical precedence to predict Derek Carr’s 2019 passing numbersNew Isaiah Johnson Jersey 2019 ,235commentsPDTShare this storyShare this on FacebookShare this on TwitterShareAll sharing optionsShareAll sharing options for:Using statistical precedence to predict Derek Carr’s 2019 passing numbersTwitterFacebookRedditPocketFlipboardEmailPhoto by Jamie Squire/Getty ImagesThis is an independent study of passing stats in the NFL and an attempt to predict Derek Carr’s 2019 statistical output. Carr made progress in a few areas but finished 2018 with mostly average numbers. In this article we will examine models that predict a quarterbacks progression during a target time span and try to see if Carr can improve even more. First let’s go over a few of the passing categories used in this study.Passer rating is calculated using a player’s passing attempts, completions, yards, touchdowns, and interceptions. Passer rating is measured on a scale from 0 to 158.3. Matt Ryan has the best single season passer rating over the past 3 years with 117.1 in 2016. Deshone Kizer has the lowest with 60.5 in 2017 of quarterbacks qualifying for this study (starting at least 8 games).Adjusted net yards per attempt is a metric that scores the yards per passing attempt while adding bonuses for touchdown passes and subtracting penalties for sacks and interceptions. Matt Ryan also has the highest single season ANY/A over the past 3 years with 9.03 in 2016. Josh Rosen has the lowest with 3.53 in 2018.Completion percentage measures the number of passes completed against attempted as a percentage. Drew Brees has the best single season completion percentage over the past 3 years with 74.4% in 2018. Josh Allen has the lowest with 52.8 also in 2018.Touchdowns scores the number of touchdowns a quarterback passes for in a season. Patrick Mahomes has the most single season touchdown passes over the past 3 years with 50 in 2018. Cody Kessler has the least with 6 in 2016.Yards measures the total number of passing yards a quarterback completes. Patrick Mahomes also owns the most single season passing yards over the past 3 seasons with 5,381 in 2018. Cody Kessler again has the least with 1,380 in 2016.QB progression researchDerek Carr entering his 6th full year as the starting quarterback for the Oakland Raiders is coming into a make or break season in his career. Luckily for him this will be Carr’s first time with the luxury of playing in the same offensive system in back to back seasons.In order to predict what Carr’s passing statistics will look like in 2019 I compiled a list of quarterbacks in the last 15 seasons with a similar profile to Derek Carr—mostly pocket passers who started from their rookie season onward. Excluded from this list are players like Russell Wilson (dissimilar playing style) and Drew Brees (didn’t play his rookie season) in order to gain the most realistic prediction of what 2019 could look like for Carr.I took two separate snapshots into these quarterbacks’ careers. The first measures the percentage difference in the aforementioned passing categories from year 5 to year 6. The second data set looks at the change in passing statistics for each quarterback in their second season in the same offensive scheme (at any point in their career).Many of the quarterbacks studied during this research oddly enough regressed from year 5 to year 6. This regression contributes to an average drop in 3 of the 5 statistical categories and only a negligible increase in completion percentage and yardage. The statistical drop for the quarterbacks used in this study was unexpected. When digging deeper into the history of these passers however it showed one striking theme; the quarterbacks who regressed from year 5 to year 6 usually were on another team within a few seasons. Meanwhile the few passers who improved from year 5 to year 6 went on to compete in the playoffs or win Super Bowls. It is universally assumed that this will be a make or break season for Carr, maybe there are analytics that support this assertion.The study also showed that the second season with the same offensive coordinator made a universal positive impact on passing stats across the board. All but one quarterback used in this study improved in at least three statistical categories in their second year with the same offensive coordinator. Many improved in all five areas. Some made dramatic improvements in the most valuable metrics like Passer Rating and ANY/A. This was more expected and to see the data back that assumption bodes well for Carr in 2019.PredictionsSo which group will Carr fall under? The data trends suggests Carr will avoid the 6th year slump due to being in Gruden’s offense for the second year. There are of course mitigating factors such as play calling, pass blocking, and receiver play that will affect Carr’s production. It is not a slam dunk that Carr improves like other quarterbacks in this study but he would be an outlier if he didn’t. Using the percentage change metrics in the chart above and extrapolating them onto Derek Carr’s 2018 statistics there are 3 predictions that can be made.The first column shows Carr’s stats in 2018. For reference Carr ranked 12th in passer rating, 16th in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A), 4th in completion percentage, 20th in touchdowns, and 12th in yards in the 2018 season. The low prediction is generated by applying the percent change from year 5 to 6 to Carr’s 2018 stats. As stated before, the quarterbacks used in this study generally saw a drop in their statistics going in year 6 of their career. This explains why just using the year 5 to 6 model shows Carr might actually regress in 2019. These numbers would have landed Carr outside the top 20 quarterbacks in 2018.The high prediction is generated by using the percent change in a quarterback’s second year in the same offense. As pointed out previously, quarterbacks universally improved in their second year with the same offense. This model predicts a big jump across the board for Carr. This isn’t a huge leap of the imagination considering almost half of the quarterbacks in this study made improvements in all 5 areas during year 2 in the same offense. These numbers (aside from touchdowns) would put Carr solidly in the MVP discussion in most seasons.The middle prediction is generated by taking the previous two models and finding their averages before applying it to Carr’s 2018 stats. This is probably the safest prediction and while Carr still shows improvement in all areas, it’s not as dramatic as the high prediction. If Carr hits these numbers in the middle prediction, he would have been good enough to finish in the top 10 in most passing statistics in 2018.Notes:Derek Carr’s completion percentage was good for 4th best in the NFL in 2018 (9th best in the last 3 seasons). In all my research it was rare for an NFL quarterback’s completion percentage to drop either from year 5 to year 6 or in their second season in the same offense. It’s safe to assume Carr will be similarly or even more accurate in 2019.Touchdowns were down for Carr in 2018. Because the predictions are based off the 2018 statistics they similarly show middling numbers for touchdowns. This wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing. In the past 3 seasons quarterbacks there have been an equal amount of teams advancing to the playoffs with passers going over 30 touchdowns as there has been with passers throwing under that mark. 3 out of the 5 passing stats posted by Carr in 2018 were above the 3 year average study (passer rating, completion percentage, and yards). Adjusted Net Yard per Attempt (ANY/A) is the one area that Carr needs to improve the most considering it has the strongest correlation to a winning record out of the 5 passing stats. Having players like Antonio Brown and Tyrell Williams should help Carr improve that stat in 2019.How might this translate to wins? Well, you’ll have to wait for tomorrow for that. ALAMEDA, Calif. (AP) — Derek Carr has seen two coaches get fired, fellow stars get traded and the roster get overhauled numerous times in five seasons as Oakland Raiders quarterback.The latest change for Carr came this week when the Raiders fired general manager Reggie McKenzie, the man who drafted him in 2014 and negotiated the $125 million contract that made Carr the face of the franchise."There has been a lot of turnover," Carr said Wednesday. "Not only in the last five years, but in the last 12 months. There has been a lot of turnover. A lot of different things; systems, players, obviously the GM, coaches. It just teaches you that you can't control anything outside of what you can control. The best thing that you can do is show up every day and give it everything that you have because anything outside of that is out of your control." In a span of less than a year Cheap Isaiah Johnson Jersey , Carr has watched the departures of coach Jack Del Rio, coordinator Todd Downing, 2014 draft mate Khalil Mack and No. 1 receiver Amari Cooper.Amid that turnover and more losing than he'd care to endure, Carr somehow is playing some of the best football of his career in recent weeks, topping a 120 rating in consecutive games for just the second time in his career."I feel more confident in our system," Carr said. "I feel like my reads are quicker. I feel like I can get through things and eliminate things faster. That feels better. So, that is a different feeling. But, I didn't feel like when you play basketball you can shoot it however you want and they're going in no matter what. I didn't have a feeling like that."Carr has taken time to find his groove in coach Jon Gruden's offense. He began the year overly aggressive, throwing eight interceptions in the first five games, including two on first-down plays in the red zone.He then got overly cautious, failing to complete a single pass that traveled more than 10 yards downfield twice in a span of three games.But he finally has struck the proper balance in recent weeks. He has gone a franchise-record eight straight games without an interception and has regained his deep touch. Carr has completed nine passes that traveled at least 15 yards downfield the past two games — against Kansas City and Pittsburgh, equaling his total from his previous six games combined.His passer rating is 16 points higher in seven games without Cooper than it was in six games before his top receiver was traded to Dallas."He can make all the throws," Gruden said. "I mean, he can make passes that very few guys on the planet can make, and he can make them confidently. He doesn't even think about it. When he's off six inches, he's mad. He can really throw the ball, he's feeling it right now."Carr credits much of the improvement to a new attitude after a sit-down with Gruden in which he was told not to worry about his statistics and just to trust his instincts to do what's right.Much was made leading up to the start of the season about the relationship between the two. Gruden is notoriously hard on his quarterbacks and has almost never had a quarterback as young and talented as Carr.Carr had had predominantly defensive-minded head coaches in his career and had to adjust to the more hands-on approach from Gruden. Carr said he has a tendency to try to please and knows he must trust his own gut more often. That's why Gruden's words of encouragement were so helpful."It was around the early, middle of the season where he just kind of sat me down and said, ‘Let's not take your right arm out of things. Let's just take it back to the simple things,'" Carr said. "We didn't cut anything out. I just think that the way he was starting to word things was different. Instead of every little detail, because if you give me 100 details I'm going to try to do 100 all correct, now he's said, ‘Well let me give you 50 details and let's just let your talent take over the rest.' We've been doing that and correcting as we go and adding here and there. It just helped me play freer for our team and for him. It's been nice."NOTES: LG Kelechi Osemele (toe), RG Gabe Jackson (elbow, ankle) and LB Kyle Wilber (hamstring) all missed practice. … C Rodney Hudson (ankle/knee), WR Dwayne Harris (foot), DT Maurice Hurst (ankle), FB Keith Smith (calf) and CB Daryl Worley (shoulder) were limited.